March 26, 2008

2008 Playoff Preview



With the end of the regular season just weeks away and the playoffs on the horizon, teams are ready to hit the stretch drive and make some noise in the Stanley Cup playoffs. With battles for conference supremacy in the East, battling for key divisional spots in the West, to battling for that last playoff spot in both conferences, they excitement surrounding the coolest game on earth has certainly lived up to expectations in this 'new' NHL era. With sixteen teams getting a ticket to the big dance, only one will be left standing as the Stanley Cup champion come June.

Picking a team to come out of what is likely the toughest route to a title in all of profession sports is not easy, and we have witnessed many surprises in the last three years of the Stanley Cup playoffs. In 2004, the Calgary Flames surprise many by making it through the Western Conference only to lose to Tampa Bay. In 2006, the Edmonton Oilers made the jump to the finals only to lose to the Carolina Hurricanes. And in 2007, the Ottawa Senators made the trek to the Cup finals only to lose to the mighty Anaheim Ducks.

It is difficult to say what is most surprising; the fact that three of Canada's six teams have made it to the cup final for the third consecutive year, the fact that they all lost, or the fact that the Stanley Cup was won by teams based in Florida, California and Carolina... hardly the hotbeds of hockey in the USA. Needless to say, we have all been surprised over the years by at least one of the Stanley Cup finalists. This year, expect no different.

With so much parity in the league, it will all come down to matchups. The East is perhaps the weaker of the two conferences, but easily is the most exciting. High-octane offence has dominated the conference with the likes of Alexander Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin, Alex Kovalev, Vincent Lecavalier, and Ottawa's 'big three'. On the contrary, the West is a tough, defensive-minded, 'in your face' conference with players like Dion Phaneuf, Ryan Smythe, and Chris Pronger.

Thus the Eastern finalist will largely be determined by who can outscore the rest of the East, and the Western finalist largely determined by the best defensive team in the wild, wild West. Ready for some predictions?

Given the Eastern conference being so wide open, all teams seeded 1 through 8 do have the ability to pull off an upset in the first round. But the best overall team often does prevail. That being said, Boston and Philadelphia have shown a great amount of inconsistency throughout the season and simply don't have the goaltending to carry them 3 rounds against other high-scoring Eastern conference teams. Although the door is open for an upset, I don't see either winning their first round matchup regardless of who they face.

Moving on up, the NY Rangers have the talent up front to score, and have one of the league's best goalies in Henrik Lundqvist. However, the million dollar question for the Rangers is, "Will the real Jaromir Jagr please stand up?” Hiding in the shadows during last year's early post-season exit, the Rangers need Jagr to step up this season along with Ranger newcomers Chris Drury and Scott Gomez. If the offence fails to produce, the Rangers will be relying on a mediocre defensive corps to carry them... and that does not bode well in a 7 game series against other high-scoring teams.

It's without saying that the Southeast division is the weakest in the conference, yet one team from the division will hold down the third seed. It's also interesting to note that for two of the past three years the southeast division winner has found themselves winning the Stanley Cup. Sorry to say, but it won't be happening this year.

The Ottawa Senators, Montreal Canadiens, New Jersey Devils and the Pittsburgh Penguins are thus the cream of the crop in the Eastern conference. The Pittsburgh Penguins and Ottawa Senators have the best two offensive on paper, the New Jersey Devils have Martin Brodeur (who has proved he can carry a team to the finals), the Ottawa Senators have three game-breakers in Alfredsson, Heatley and Spezza, and the Montreal Canadiens have four underrated lines that can score. Simply put, surviving the Eastern conference will come down to offensive execution down the stretch while withstanding an opponent's offensive pressure.

The New Jersey Devils do have Martin Brodeur, but in a conference that has greatly improved in offensive production this year, the Devils simply don't have the offence prowess to keep up with the likes of Pittsburgh and Ottawa. The Penguins have an excessive amount of firepower up front, but their problem lies with an inexperienced blueline and shaky goaltender in Marc-Andre Fleury. The Penguins can score, but if they want any chance of winning the East they can't rely on fighting fire with fire. Something's got to give, and it just might be Marc-Andre Fleury's play between the pipes.

That leaves us with the Ottawa Senators and Montreal Canadiens.; Ottawa projected to run away with the conference, and Montreal was predicted to miss the playoffs. It goes without saying that this certainly wasn't the case for either franchise. The Ottawa Senators have fallen mightily after beginning the season 15-2, and the Montreal Canadiens have proved the pundits wrong. Obviously, both teams can score. The Ottawa Senators rely on their big three trio to carry the team, while Montreal relies on a balanced attack with execution on the powerplay. Offensively, each is equal in their capabilities.

Looking at the back end, Ottawa is led by the tandem of Andrej Maszaros and Wade Redden while Montreal is anchored by Mike Komisarek and Andrei Markov. Both bluelines can score, both can hit, and both can defend. Defensively, it's another tie as well.


Between the pipes, the scene has been disastrous in Ottawa and controversial in Montreal...until Cristobal Huet was traded to Washington. Now having his team's playoffs hopes resting on his shoulders, rookie Carey Price will look to pull a Patrick Roy and Carey his team to the promise land. And he will do it. The Ottawa Senators have been too inconsistent this year, while the Canadiens have only lost two regulation games in a row only three times this season. It's a gamble, but the Canadiens have shown more consistency then Ottawa and Carey Price doesn't waver under pressure. Over in Ottawa, Gerber has proven nothing at the playoff level and Ray Emery has caused more problems than he has solved. Although he has no NHL playoff experience, Carey Price captured both the Calder Cup MVP Award in the AHL and a gold medal at the World Juniors...with no experience in either case.


Also in the Canadiens favor is that they have four players scratched every game due to internal competition for only 18 roster spots. If injuries occur, they have NHL regulars that can step in and fill the void.

Eastern Conference champion: Montreal Canadiens

So how will the rugged West be won? In a conference dominated by defense, the key to taking the Western conference will be durability. The team that can hit and grind it out the most will represent the Western conference in the Stanley Cup Final.

Teams like Minnesota and San Jose are too soft, and can't counter that aspect with proven playoff performers. Most of these series will go the distance of either 6 or 7 games, so the wear and tear on the players is inevitable. It will be too difficult for players like Pavel Demitra and Marian Gaborik (from the Wild) and Patrick Marleau and Jonathan Cheechoo (from the Sharks)to go through three rounds of the playoffs while taking a beating from the tough blueliners of the west.

The Anaheim Ducks have what it takes with their core intact from last season's Stanley Cup final, but the teams that could challenge them the most are the Calgary Flames and Dallas Stars. Both Dallas and Calgary can score, can defend, and can hit alongside Anaheim and both have goalies that can not only be good, but great. Marty Turco elevated his game last post season, and Mika Kiprusoff is no stranger to the Stanley Cup finals.

And let's not forget about Detroit. The Red Wings counter with Dominik Hasek, a sound blueline and the firepower up front. However, the big question mark for Detroit is if they have players that can battle in the corners against the likes of Chris Pronger and Dion Phaneuf. Detroit does lead the conference in points, but they do play in a weaker division against four non-playoff teams. They will certainly get a shock and be tested when they matchup with teams from the Northwest and Pacific divisions. Thus, the two teams that have the best chance of winning the wild West are Anaheim and Dallas.

If I had to put my bottom dollar on one, I'd put it on the Stars. With the acquisition of Brad Richards in February, the Stars have the firepower up front, a solid blueline with grit and the best penalty kill in the league.

Western Conference champion: Dallas Stars

There you have it folks. A Montreal-Dallas final. It has all the makings of a dramatic series:

The best powerplay goes against the best penalty kill. Two goalies in Carey Price and Marty Turco who have not won a NHL playoff series go head to head. Canadiens GM Bob Gainey facing the team that he led to Dallas' last Stanley Cup. Kirk Muller and Guy Carbonneau coaching against their former team. Carbonneau coaching against his son-in-law (Stars captain Brendan Morrow), and Mike 'Ribs' Ribeiro facing his ex-team in the Cup finals.

To reach Christos, send an email to christos10@gmail.com

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I don't see Dallas getting to the final. Anaheim has the experience. Also, the Sens will choke in the first round but I can see a Cinderella team like Montreal making it through the east.