Struggling Times in TO

Things can't get any worse for the Toronto Maple Leafs these days. After coming off a heartbreaking overtime loss to Montreal on Tuesday (giveaway via Bryan McCabe), coming off a 5-2 loss to the Bruins last night, and having forward's Jiri Tlusty's nude photos grabbing headlines across the news, the Leafs are grabbing the media spotlight for all the wrong reasons. With a mediocre 7-8-5 record through 20 games, the Leafs are being heavily scrutizined by both hockey analysts and their fans across the country.

To the Leafs' credit, they have had unfortunate injury problems riddling their team, making it undoubtedly difficult for the players to develop chemistry. However, the fact remains that good teams still find ways to win, and the Leafs' have yet to prove it on a consistent basis.

So what is the problem, then? Why are the Leafs worse than they were last year through 20 games? Last season the Leafs were 11-5-4 in their first twenty games, allowing only 54 goals against compared to the whopping 74 they have already allowed this season. Why have the Leafs of this season given up 20 more goals, despite acquiring goaltender Vesa Toskala in the offseason? Why did the Leafs of last season have 68 goals compared to the 63 currently, despite acquiring F Jason Blake? And why do the Leafs of this season end up losing half of the games they play when leading after two periods, compared to only 20% of last season? These are all questions that leave Leafs' fans scratching their heads, and JFJ once again sitting in the hot seat.

Unfortunately, the only ones who can provide answers to these questions are the Leafs' themselves; the same Leafs whose fans are expecting them to make the playoffs.

The finger has been pointed at many over the past 4 weeks or so, but no more so than to struggling defenceman Bryan McCabe. The 11-year veteran has the worst +/- on Toronto with a -7, despite missing 6 games due to a groin injury. After making some crucial mistakes this season (none bigger than the own goal in OT), Leaf fans have jumped at the opportunity to make Bryan McCabe Toronto's newest scapegoat. It was only two seasons ago that Leaf fans hailed McCabe after finishing with 68 points and a -1 rating. This time 'round however, the St. Catherine's, Ontario native is on pace for a 38 point, -38 season.

So what to do with McCabe? Trading McCabe would be an option, however moving his hefty $7.15 million contract would be nearly impossible, especially in the salary cap era. Compare that salary to that of Tomas Kaberle, who is making $4.25 million a season, and Leafs' fans will have a difficult time accepting JFJ giving McCabe almost $3 million more to McCabe. Both offensively and defensively, Kaberle is "Mr. Consistency" for the Leafs; a steady blueliner with above average playmaking abilities and underrated defensive capabilities. In eight NHL seasons, Kaberle has had only one season with a minus rating (a mere -1), and that was in 2005-2006. After digesting all that information, take a look at the histogram below, and it's clear that JFJ made a big mistake when he signed McCabe to such a large contract. Taking penalties and putting your team shorthanded isn't going to help the team win. Leaf fans will have to cross their fingers and hope that either McCabe turns his season around, or that JFJ can figure something out that will stop the bleeding.

Graph courtesy of Alan Ryder

That being said, it's not just Bryan McCabe who should take the blame for Toronto's early season woes . The team's concept of "team defence" has not been exhibited consistently enough to say that the Leafs' are a good enough defensive team to make the playoffs. The Leafs' give up 3.60 goals/game, good enough for 2nd worst in the entire league while giving up almost 32 shots a game. That is something that you can't blame on just one player. Defence isn't played by the 6 players on your blueline, but rather played in a coordinated manner emphasizing a team concept. Paul Maurice needs to get that message across to his players.

So what about the offence? The Leafs' positive point this season has been their ability to put the puck in the net, with the 6th best offence in the league. Nik Antropov is off to a stellar start (a start most Leaf fans probably weren't expecting) and Mats Sundin has once again proven that he is one of the most dominant players in the league. Kyle Wellwood coming back from injury will surely increase their offensive output, but the problem still lies in their defensive system. One of the most puzzling points is that the Toronto Maple Leafs organization has no clear direction of where they are going into the future. The team currently has only 5 players under 25 and have traded away many young prospects and high draft picks. Thus, it is hard to beleive that the Leafs are 'going young'. Despite stating that under his direction Toronto would be a fast, young team, Ferguson's actions have undoubtedly spoken louder than his words.

In July of 2006, the Toronto Maple Leafs addressed a problem that needed a solution: goaltending. JFJ traded coveted prospect Tuukka Rask for Andrew Raycroft and everyone thought that Raycroft would establish himself as the numero uno in Toronto. However, things didn't pan out, so JFJ reached into his pocket again and hauled out first, second, and fourth-round picks to San Jose for Vesa Toskala. After trading away the team's draft picks, JFJ signed Toskala to an $8 million deal over two seasons, which is a little much for a goaltender who had yet to prove himself as a starter. Finally, the Leafs had addressed their goaltending issue...or so they thought. Toskala and Raycroft have battled back and forth over the starter's role with neither taking the ball and running with it. With both goalies having a GAA over 3.3 and save percentages below 0.890, it is deja vu for Leaf fans all over again.

Are you starting to see the trend? JFJ has forced the Leafs' organization into a hole by trading away draft picks for shot-term solutions, while signing older free agents to expensive contracts (e.g., Jeff O'Neill, Eric Lindros, Ed Belfour, Jason Allison, Pavel Kubina, Hal Gill, etc...). If JFJ has any intention of being the Maple Leafs' GM next season, he better push some buttons. It doesn't have to be the 'panic button', but the more JFJ waits, the faster the clock is ticking on not only his tenure with Toronto, but also the Leafs' season.

At the start of October, the budding Leafs' were filled with promise and had high expectations for the season. However, the Leafs have already fallen to the ground in November, and their fans can only hope that their team is not blown away by December.




To reach Christos, send an email to christos10@gmail.com