Slumping Senators: In need of a change?

Last night, the Ottawa Senators suffered a 6-5 loss to the Nashville Predators, extending their losing streak to a season-high five games. After starting the season 15-2-0, the Senators have gone 3-5-2 in their last 10, yet still sit atop the Eastern Conference with 34 points. Although it is not time to hit the panic button, the Sens have lost 6 of their last 7, and are desperate for a win. Maybe not Toronto desperate, but nonetheless desperate for a W.

So what's different about Ottawa in these last 10 games compared to the first 10 games of the season, where they were a dominating 9-1-0? On paper the Senators haven't changed at all; but on the ice, it's a different story. Before the finger pointing begins, let's take a look at Ottawa's statistics on their five game losing skid.

Offense

Scoring goals was not a problem for the Ottawa Senators during their 15-2-0 start to the season, averaging 3.2 goals/game, so one would think that Senators might have dropped off in the goal scoring department. However, that has not been the case since the Senators have had no trouble finding the back of the net. Ottawa's big three (Spezza, Alfredsson, Heatley) haven't lost a step, combining for 9 goals, 12 assists and a +8 rating. Surprisingly the Senators averaged 3.4 goals/game during the skid, slightly greater than their season average when they were dominating games. Thus, the problem isn't with the offence.

Defense

Well, if it's not their offense, then it has to be their blueline....right? Well, kind of. Up until their losing streak, the Ottawa Senators gave up a mere 2.15 goals/game, good enough for 3rd best in the league. They not only had a great offense, but played a solid defensive game as well. In their last five, they've given up a whopping 21 goals against, averaging out to a shocking 4.2 goals against/game. To put it in perspective, the worst defensive team in the league (the Toronto Maple Leafs) are averaging 3.42 goals against/game. If that statistic doesn't tell you anything, then I don't know what will.

The six blueliners of the Senators have a combined for 15 points and a -11 rating. Not great, but not worthy of solely blaming the blueline for the losing streak. In fact, two of those blueliners (Volchenkov and Phillips) have combined for a -10 rating of the combined -11.

To add insult to injury, or rather injury to insult, Senators defenceman Andrei Volchenkov suffered a broken finger in Thursday's loss and will be out of the lineup for 4 weeks.

Well if the entire blueline is only a -11 through a five game losing streak, it has to be the penalty kill...right? Right? No. During the losing streak the Senators have only given up 3 powerplay goals on 23 chances, translating to an 87% penalty kill percentage. Compare that to their season average of 85%, and the Senators penalty killing has actually improved even though they lost each game. Make sense? Nope, but that's what happened.

Let's take a step back. If the Senators offense, powerplay and penalty kill improved, and their shots against/game remained the same (30.8), then how did the Senators lose five in a row. After all, you would think the Senators would win at least one of those games. And thus this leads us to the Senators Achilles' heel as of late...goaltending.

Goaltending

Martin Gerber, who was having an all-star campaign after coming off a career worst 2006-07 season, has struggled mightily as of late. With season averages of 2.38 GAA and a 0.923 save percentage, it is hard to believe that Gerber is struggling. But if you take a look at Gerber's past three games, it's simply ugly. With a save percentage of 0.835 and a horrendous 4.66 GAA, Martin Gerber's play has been anything but 'all-star-like'. After seeing Gerber struggle,Paddock put Emery between the pipes to see if he could reverse the losing trend. However, although Emery played much better than his counterpart, Emery only managed a save percentage below 0.900 and a GAA of 2.33. Hardly what Paddock was expecting from the netminder who lead them to the Stanley Cup finals.

Many have been calling for the Senators to go after a top-six forward by sending a goaltender the other way, but the Senators don't know which one to say goodbye to. Gerber has rebounded exceptionally well after last season, yet Emery was their go-to-man last year who stepped up after Gerber struggled. Whoever GM Bryan Murray decides to move (if it all), it will be a tough call for the Senators ex-coach. After all, he witnessed first hand last season what both goaltenders were capable of. The bottom line is that one of the Senators goaltenders needs to step-up and grab the bull by the horns, because a two-headed monster cannot survive. Rotating goaltenders most likely won't take the Senators to the promise land. They need a number one, and they need one sooner rather than later. If not, Murray may be forced to rotate the two-headed monster between the pipes until it's too late.

The Bottom Line: Whether it be before Christmas (highly unlikey) or at the trade deadline, Bryan Murray will make a move. The Senators are far too good, and Bryan Murray far to savvy to pass up dealing a quality goaltender for a dynamic player to improve his roster. However, it isn't time to hit the panic button just yet. The Senators are still one of the best teams in the entire league, and they will get through this. Every team has their ups and downs during the course of the season, and the Senators will be no different.

That being said, the last time the Senators dropped five in a row came just last season... the same season they went on to the Stanley Cup Finals. Perhaps this streak is simply a blessing in disguise.

To reach Christos, send an email to christos10@gmail.com